War on Al-Qaeda inflames Afghanistan, Pakistan

KABUL — After a year of soaring violence and weakening government control in Afghanistan and Pakistan, a flagship US strategy aimed at ending the war against Al-Qaeda ushers in a 2010 fraught with peril.

Violence is at an all-time high since US-led troops invaded Afghanistan more than eight years ago to unseat the Taliban and destroy Al-Qaeda's sanctuary, now reputed to lie in the border areas of nuclear-armed Pakistan.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai has emerged tarnished after his August re-election was mired in massive fraud while the civilian government in Pakistan, once a bright hope for regional stability, is flailing.

President Barack Obama has expanded the war, this year ordering the deployment of over 50,000 extra troops to Afghanistan and pressuring Pakistan to do more to fight militants or reportedly risk more drone attacks and special forces raids.

He has narrowed his objectives to denying Al-Qaeda a safe haven, preventing the Taliban from overthrowing the Kabul government, and training Afghan forces and authorities to take responsibility, but the challenge ahead is immense.

Washington has identified the Afghan-Pakistani border as the "epicentre of violent extremism," Al-Qaeda's chief sanctuary, the most dangerous place on earth and the presumed hideout of Osama bin Laden.

The Taliban are said to have a significant presence across virtually all Afghanistan and commanders warn that more troops will spell more violence at least in the short-term, with NATO and US forces set to rise to 150,000.

In impoverished Afghanistan, civilian casualties were up 24 percent during the first six months of this year to 1,013 compared to the same period in 2008, according to UN statistics.

The independent icasualties.org says 491 foreign soldiers have died so far this year in Afghanistan, up 66 percent from 2008 and more than three times the number killed in Iraq in 2009.

Islamabad, which US officials still suspect of sponsoring Islamist radicals to counter India, has been dragged into a war with Taliban guerrillas whose response to the US-Pakistani alliance has been a 29-month bombing campaign.

Militant attacks in Pakistan have killed at least 1,150 people this year, up 26 percent on 2008, according to an AFP tally.

Strikes are becoming increasingly brazen. In October militants besieged army headquarters for 22 hours while a bombing in a northwestern market that month killed 125 people, mostly civilians, in the deadliest attack in two years.

Scores of troops have died in a string of Pakistani offensives this year against home-grown Taliban in the northwest that have signalled a greater determination to fight those attacking on Pakistani soil.

But rising violence has weakened the US-backed governments in both Kabul and Islamabad.

Fraud marred the August presidential election in Afghanistan, which was intended as a milestone on the road to democracy but ended up with Karzai being declared victor by his officials when his only rival pulled out.

After months of political paralysis, Karzai has still not announced a new cabinet, while the West hopes for a more transparent line-up that can tackle corruption, sideline warlords and thus boost the president's legitimacy.

The new year will see an international conference in London on January 28 that could set a short time-frame to hand over security to Afghan forces.

Changes will take place at the heavily criticised UN mission in Afghanistan when envoy Kai Eide steps down in March.

The lessons from the election debacle "must be used to ensure a much strengthened process for the planned 2010 national assembly and district elections," says the International Crisis Group.

In Pakistan, President Asif Ali Zardari's position has never been more precarious.

His relations with the powerful military are strained, his approval ratings abysmal and he could yet find corruption charges reopened against him.

It remains to be seen how far moves to transfer powers to Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, intended to bolster parliament after the rule of military leader Pervez Musharraf, will be enacted.

Anti-Americanism is being stoked by increasing US drone attacks targeted at Al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders hunkered down in some of the world's most hostile terrain.

Taliban attacks against the heart of the powerful security establishment have raised questions about the military's capability to crush extremists.

Islamabad is troubled by reports that if it fails to take firmer action, the United States will send special forces into Pakistan to chase the Taliban and Al-Qaeda and will extend drone attacks to territory under direct state control.

In Afghanistan, US plans to start withdrawing troops in 18 months are further fanning uncertainty. In Pakistan, fears persist that India poses a bigger threat than the Taliban -- something little addressed in the West.